Sunday, December 26, 2010

De férias em São Paulo

Até dia 31 de dezembro.


Eu venho para São Paulo a cada um ou dois anos.


É impressionante como a cidade parece mais próspera do que em 1995 quando eu a deixei.


A melhoria no transporte urbano é algo impressionante, da limpeza e conservação dos ônibus e metrôs até a integração do metrô com os trens urbanos.


A qualidade das habitações populares também melhorou consideravelmente. Os prédios mais novos do CDHU devem pouco a muitos edifícios de classe média. Imagino que o partido que governa São Paulo deve ter usado seu tempo no horário eleitoral para mostrar ao resto do Brasil a qualidade das moradias que o governo de São Paulo provê para os pobres em São Paulo.


Mas enquanto o poder público tem feito sua parte, é triste andar nas ruas do Itaim Bibi olhando para o chão para desviar dos cocôs de cachorro.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

28 months later!

28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers in the Great Recession

Coming soon!


Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by other variables considered in the related literature, such as short-term external debt to GDP, the post-crisis growth performance of trading partners, changes in terms of trade, pre-crisis growth in private credit, and the pre-crisis current account balance. We find that inflation targeting countries lowered nominal and real interest rates more sharply than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and had sharp real depreciations without a relative deterioration in their risk assessment by markets. While the task of establishing causal relationships from cross-sectional macroeconomics series is daunting, our reading of this evidence is consistent with the resilience of IT countries being related to their ability to loosen their monetary policy when most needed, thereby avoiding deflation scares and the zero lower bound on interest rates.

Saturday, December 11, 2010

Dedicação ou preguiça?

Hoje deixei de ir à academia me exercitar de manhã para trabalhar em um parecer complicado.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Produção industrial em 51 países

Um dos meus gráficos favorites em meu artigo sobre o desempenho dos países que adotam o regime de metas de inflação desde a crise está logo abaixo. A linha azul representa a mediana de 23 países com IT (exemplos: Brasil, Chile, Austrália, Reino Unido) e a linha preta o mesmo para países que adotam outros regimes monetários (Argentina, Alemanha, Japão etc).

Raposas no quintal

Alguns anos atrás, eu estava na cozinha de casa, de repente olhei pela janela e havia três raposinhas brincando e uma raposa adulta observando. Quando eu busquei minha câmera, só havia duas raposas, mas consegui capturar este vídeo.

Sunday, December 5, 2010

Inflation Targeting paper: new installment

I have just updated my January 2010 IMF Working Paper with data available through November and this Tuesday I will present it at the Macroeconomics seminar of Johns Hopkins University.

The results in this version of the paper are very striking and I have not fully understood their meaning (is it luck? Is it monetary policy? Or some omitted variable?). There seems to be a positive effect of an inflation targeting regime on economic performance since August 2008. This effect is robust to controlling for several variables that the literature has established as important determinants of post-crisis economic performance (short-term external debt to GDP, post-crisis changes in terms of trade and pre-crisis growth in private credit and current account balance).

Comments are welcome. The link is here.

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment
Irineu de Carvalho Filho
December 3, 2010

Abstract:
This paper appraises how inflation targeting countries fared during the current crisis relative to their peers, thereby establishing the stylized facts to guide and motivate future research. Since August 2008, IT countries lowered nominal and real policy rates than other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and IT currencies depreciated sharply in real terms but their risk assessment by markets did not deteriorate. I could not find any difference in unemployment dynamics but advanced IT countries had stronger industrial production growth. Finally, I estimated a reduced form econometric model for the post-crisis change in GDP growth rates, finding a positive effect of IT. This effect is robust to inclusion of other determinants of growth performance after the crisis, such as short-term external debt to GDP, the growth performance of trading partners, post-crisis changes in terms of trade and pre-crisis growth in private credit and current account balance.

UPDATE:When preparing my seminar presentation, I combed through the data and caught a few data mistakes (for one major country I had read the nominal instead of real GDP series). Therefore I spent the last few hours updating the tables and charts. No change in the message though. The link to the file takes you to the updated paper.