Monday, December 23, 2013

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Meu IMF working paper Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth, com Marcos Chamon, acabou de ser postado no website do FMI.

 Link aqui.

 Abstract: This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. Our estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8 percent per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9 percent per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. We attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. Our estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.

Monday, December 9, 2013

Quintal de casa


Meu vizinho pensa que meu jardim é buffet.
Mas quando chego perto, sai correndo.



Wednesday, November 6, 2013

The Curious Case of Japan

My paper with Dennis Botman and W. Raphael Lam, both from the Asian and Pacific Department of the International Monetary Fund, “The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis”, has just been made available at the public IMF website. 

In that paper, we study the effect of risk-off episodes on the Japanese yen. The abstract below tells the story.

Abstract
During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.

Monday, August 19, 2013

Risk-off episodes and capital flows to Switzerland


Meu texto sobre episódios de risk-off e fluxos de capitais na Suíça está disponibilizado como texto para discussão do Studienzentrum Gerzensee.

My working paper on risk-off episodes and capital flows to Switzerland is available now at the working paper series from Studienzentrum Gerzensee.

Abstract:
During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk-off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks: Over several quarters, risk-off episodes also appear to be related to reductions in net FDI outflows by Swiss residents. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk-off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk-off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk-off episodes.

Friday, May 10, 2013

Show de bola

O Arjun deixou o Orlandinho de fora nessa... 

Hoje foi minha ultima pelada em Doha, por ora. 
Mando um abraco para todos os amigos, e espero ve-los novamente.

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Pelada dos brasileiros no Qatar

Sexta passada foi o aniversário do professor Celso Fernandes (ao centro, camisa amarela), líder da comunidade e organizador da pelada dos brasileiros no Qatar. Vou contando os dias até a próxima sexta-feira...


Monday, April 1, 2013

Posição de Research Assistant no FMI


Existe uma posição de Research Assistant aberta no FMI, cobrindo a economia brasileira.

O típico Research Assistant é um graduado ou mestre em economia com excelentes referências, atenção ao detalhe e familiaridades com dados macroeconômicos. Para esta posição, experiência cobrindo a economia brasileira é um fator importante.

Se você estiver interessado, contate-me aqui e lhe passarei os detalhes. 

Monday, March 11, 2013

Monstro

Fiquei chocado com esta reportagem. Um jovem paulistano de classe média, Alex Siwec, voltando da balada de madrugada, atropela outro jovem paulistano, David Santos Souza, indo ao trabalho, de bicicleta.

O impacto do carro decepou o braço de David, que ficou preso no para brisa do carro de Alex, que não parou para prestar socorro e descartou o braço de David em um córrego.

Qualquer resolução desse incidente que não implique em vários anos de cadeia em regime fechado para Alex Siwec é um atentado à dignidade humana.

Sunday, March 3, 2013

No forno... artigo sobre os efeitos do salário mínimo sobre o emprego no Brasil

Alguns anos atrás, eu pensei em escrever um artigo sobre o impacto do salário mínimo sobre o emprego no Brasil.

Minha motivação era que durante os anos de inflação alta, o salário mínimo real era muito volátil e aumentos em seu valor eram rapidamente erodidos pela inflação. Portanto, sempre foi para mim nada surpreendente que a literatura tendia a encontrar efeitos pequenos ou insignificantes do salário mínimo sobre o emprego. 

Ontem comecei finalmente a escrever este artigo. Eu vou usar dados dos censos populacionais de 2000 and 2010 e para evitar viés de especificação eu selecionei as especificações que considero ideais e estou comprometido a não procurar especificações novas se os resultados não forem de encontro a minhas priors.

Em alguns minutos vou começar a escrever o código para estimar as regressões...

Suspense no ar...

Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Next Generation: Long-term Effects of a Temporary Boost in Local Government Spending

|That is joint work with Stephan Litschig.
Contact me if you would like to receive a copy.

Abstract:
This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on long-term education impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to small local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures for the communities benefi ting from those transfers increased by about 20% from 1982 to 1985. Schooling and literacy gains for school age cohorts during the boost period— established for 1991 in previous work—are shown to persist based on the 2000 census. Children and adolescents who attended school during the early 1990s and the decade of the 2000s show gains of about 0.1 and 0.08 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams (Prova Brasil and ENEM, respectively) at the end of the 2000s. Younger children who attended school in the 2000s do not show any test score gains at the end of the 2000s. While there is no evidence of persistent public service improvements at the municipal level, we provide evidence on intergenerational transmission of human capital.