Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Next Generation: Long-term Effects of a Temporary Boost in Local Government Spending

|That is joint work with Stephan Litschig.
Contact me if you would like to receive a copy.

This paper provides regression discontinuity evidence on long-term education impacts of a temporary increase in federal transfers to small local governments in Brazil. Revenues and expenditures for the communities benefi ting from those transfers increased by about 20% from 1982 to 1985. Schooling and literacy gains for school age cohorts during the boost period— established for 1991 in previous work—are shown to persist based on the 2000 census. Children and adolescents who attended school during the early 1990s and the decade of the 2000s show gains of about 0.1 and 0.08 standard deviation across the entire score distribution of two nationwide exams (Prova Brasil and ENEM, respectively) at the end of the 2000s. Younger children who attended school in the 2000s do not show any test score gains at the end of the 2000s. While there is no evidence of persistent public service improvements at the municipal level, we provide evidence on intergenerational transmission of human capital.

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