Monday, August 19, 2013

Risk-off episodes and capital flows to Switzerland


Meu texto sobre episódios de risk-off e fluxos de capitais na Suíça está disponibilizado como texto para discussão do Studienzentrum Gerzensee.

My working paper on risk-off episodes and capital flows to Switzerland is available now at the working paper series from Studienzentrum Gerzensee.

Abstract:
During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk-off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks: Over several quarters, risk-off episodes also appear to be related to reductions in net FDI outflows by Swiss residents. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk-off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk-off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk-off episodes.

2 comments:

  1. Acredito que esse fluxo de capital "residente" na verdade poderia ser classificado como "quase residente". Boa parte desse fluxo é de empresas financeiras com base no pais por conta de vantagens fiscais e seguranca como voce mencionou. De fato diminuir a exposicao dos residentes suicos ao mercado offshore deve reduzir a volatilidade mas provavelmente vai tirar alguns incentivos para esses "rsidentes" que somente estao la para investir offshore. Mas é um preço que o pais deve pagar pela estabilidade né?

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    Replies
    1. No balanco de pagamentos, residente significa residente, mesmo. Por exemplo, as transacoes de fundos de terceiros administrados por empresas financeiras suicas nao entram no balanco de pagamentos suico.

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