Monday, December 23, 2013

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Meu IMF working paper Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth, com Marcos Chamon, acabou de ser postado no website do FMI.

 Link aqui.

 Abstract: This paper estimates the household income growth rates implied by food demand in a sample of urban Chinese households in 1993–2005. Our estimates, based on Engel curves for food consumption, indicate an average per capita income growth of 6.8 percent per year in 1993–2005. This figure is slightly larger than the 5.9 percent per year obtained by deflating nominal incomes by the CPI. We attribute this discrepancy to a small bias in the CPI, which is of a similar magnitude to the one often associated with the CPI in the United States. Our estimates indicate stronger gains among poorer households, suggesting that urban inflation up to 2005 in China was “pro-poor,” in the sense that the increase in the cost of living for poorer households was smaller than for the average one.

1 comment:

  1. cool
    não conheço essa literatura, então pergunto de orelhada: com alimentos caindo de importância na cesta a medida que a renda se eleva, estimar crescimento da renda das famílias com base nisso não tem viés?